Global Warming?…. Or Global Cooling?

I’ve heard quite a few claims about “global cooling” lately. Skeptics claim that the earth has actually entered a cooling phase and we shouldn’t be so concerned about “global warming”. Is this true? Here, I want to first say something about the use of terms such as “global cooling” and “global warming”. The term “global warming” lacks precision and can be somewhat misleading. It is my opinion that many who want to discredit the claims of climate change deliberately use the term “global warming” instead of the more accurate term of “climate change”.

Obviously, climate change will cause many disruptions amongst atmospheric patterns and other things that regulate the weather. Certain areas of the globe will heat up and dry out while other areas will heat up but see an increase in rainfall (but in heavy and sporadic doses). Still other areas will cool down, or even see an increase in agricultural and plant life. So the term “climate change” is more sensitive to the variety of changes we will see, while the term “global warming” implicitly denotes that every area on earth will simply heat up and dry out. Since the term “global warming” has different implications, it is deliberately used so that when we do observe certain areas experiencing increases in plant life, lower temperatures, or more rainfall, they can claim “global warming” is a farce.

The term “global cooling” is used by politicians and pundits and really has no scientific precision. It is not well defined, I don’t know what it really means. “Global warming is canceled, we’re in a period of global cooling…”, okay, cooling compared to what? What is the standard they are using? It is actually true that the earth has cooled, but I will elaborate on that in a moment.

As it turns out the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are reporting that 2009 was the second hottest September, behind 2005, in the past 130 years. Additionally, the global ocean surface temperature was tied for the fifth warmest on record for September.
The highlights of their findings include:
-The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.12 degrees F above the 20th century average of 59.0 degrees F. Separately the global land surface temperature was 1.75 degrees F above the 20th century average of 53.6 degrees F.
-The worldwide ocean temperature tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest September on record– 0.90 degree F above the 20th century average of 61.1 degrees F. The near-Antarctic southern ocean and the Gulf of Alaska featured notable cooler-than-average temperatures.
-Arctic sea ice covered an average 2.1 million square miles in September – the third lowest for any September since records began in 1979. The coverage was 23.8 percent below the 1979-2000 average, and the 13th consecutive September with below-average Arctic sea ice extent.
-Antarctic sea ice extent in September was 2.2 percent above the 1979-2000 average. This was the third largest September extent on record, behind 2006 and 2007.

Moving on, the heat content of the oceans dwarfs the heat in the atmosphere.  It takes 1000 times more heat to warm an area of water, than it does to warm an area of air of equal size. Since the ocean is, basically, what regulates earth’s temperature, we must pay close attention to its operations. In a 3 – 7 year pattern, reservoirs of heat contained in equatorial areas of ocean water in the western Pacific cycle eastward towards the area surrounding South America. Massive amounts of heat are released in the process which has major effects on earth’s climate. This is commonly known as an El Nino. In 1998, we experienced the greatest El Nino on record. This caused such a spike in earth’s temperature that 1998 tied with 2007 (with help from a minor El Nino) for the second hottest year ever–2005 was the hottest, and without any help from an El Nino.

Relative to these temperature records from 1998, 2007, and 2005, 2008 and 2009 have indeed cooled. This is what people on Fox News don’t tell you.  Fox News made a lot of noise about the EPA “suppressing” information that suggested the earth was cooling (Glen Beck is sure to point this out nearly every other broadcast). In fact, the “suppressed” data came from Dr. Alan Carlin, a real EPA analyst, but an economist and not a scientist. It was eventually discovered that Dr. Carlin had plagiarized his information from an opinion website, which itself did not include peer-reviewed information. If it was peer-reviewed, it would quickly be discounted because of its inaccuracy. Fox decided not to report on this; nor the fact that the earth has cooled only relative to the record-breaking temperatures mentioned above (to the best of my knowledge anyways). In fact, much of Fox News and many members of the Republicans, who are more concerned with ideology than with facts, continue to use the data to ignore climate change.

Does it seem odd that these claims of global cooling start their measurements at 1998, while ignoring the rest of the 20th century? If 2008-09 were compared to any year prior to 1998, it would still be considered record high (as you can see in the pictured graph from NASA). Fortunately, it does seem that the earth is giving us every chance to get ourselves onto a sustainable path. Since 2007, we’ve had an ocean event that actually has the opposite effect of an El Nino. A La Nina happens when the area of ocean around the equator cools substantially and shifts toward the South Americas. The cooled air it releases also has a profound effect on earth’s atmosphere. Although the causes of a La Nina are not 100% certain, an apparent connection to differing atmospheric pressure systems resulting from exaggerated periods of heating and solar activity is a likely culprit.

On a final note, the effect that the sun’s activity has on earth’s climate is no small matter. The fact that we have been in a period of lowered solar activity for some time now, has a rather profound effect on climate. The occurrence of a La Nina as well as the current solar minimum are not excuses for inaction, but rather should be considered windows for action. Unfortunately, we now have to be equally concerned about what kind of actions are taken.